SMSM asked:
This actually happened when I was in the service. After finishing a 2-day mission and waiting to be relieved, we did what we normally did..played poker! This time several officers wanted to join in–big mistake for us! So, ten sat down to play one game of 5-card stud (you keep the only 5 cards you get..no wild cards..no throw-aways..everyone bet after each card was dealt). We all felt that an ace-high-garbage-hand would have been worth hanging in with for a while and a high pair could have taken it all. The game lasted for a couple of hrs. At the end, all the money most of us had, watches, rings, personal backup weapons, future favors, you name it, … it was all in the pot. More than one player had 2 of-a-kind, 2 people had 3 of-a-kind, and the last two to show their cards (both officers) each had 4 of-a-kind. The first of them to lay-down had 4 -3’s. Of course, everyone thought he was the winner, but when the last one showed his hand of 4 -4’s…well, you may can imagine the reaction. (All the ones still in the game at the end laid their hands down in the order the cards were dealt, which made it pretty amazing that the last one to show his hand had the winning-hand anyway!) This was back in the Vietnam daz, so a long time has passed, but I had to ask this question ’cause I’ve never forgotton that game and never stopped wondering about how high the odds must have been for anyone to get 4 of-a-kind…especially 2 players! The deck was a new, normal 52-card deck which was shuffeled by all 10 players, and everyone agreed that the deck had been shuffeled plenty. Thanks guys!
Elsie
This actually happened when I was in the service. After finishing a 2-day mission and waiting to be relieved, we did what we normally did..played poker! This time several officers wanted to join in–big mistake for us! So, ten sat down to play one game of 5-card stud (you keep the only 5 cards you get..no wild cards..no throw-aways..everyone bet after each card was dealt). We all felt that an ace-high-garbage-hand would have been worth hanging in with for a while and a high pair could have taken it all. The game lasted for a couple of hrs. At the end, all the money most of us had, watches, rings, personal backup weapons, future favors, you name it, … it was all in the pot. More than one player had 2 of-a-kind, 2 people had 3 of-a-kind, and the last two to show their cards (both officers) each had 4 of-a-kind. The first of them to lay-down had 4 -3’s. Of course, everyone thought he was the winner, but when the last one showed his hand of 4 -4’s…well, you may can imagine the reaction. (All the ones still in the game at the end laid their hands down in the order the cards were dealt, which made it pretty amazing that the last one to show his hand had the winning-hand anyway!) This was back in the Vietnam daz, so a long time has passed, but I had to ask this question ’cause I’ve never forgotton that game and never stopped wondering about how high the odds must have been for anyone to get 4 of-a-kind…especially 2 players! The deck was a new, normal 52-card deck which was shuffeled by all 10 players, and everyone agreed that the deck had been shuffeled plenty. Thanks guys!
Elsie
Tags: Big Mistake, Poker Game, Poker Players
tl;dr
The odds of one four of kind appearing in a round of poker are 4164 : 1
3/51*2/50*1/49 is the odds of one player being dealt any 4 of a kind
(1:20825)
For a second player to be dealt any 4 of a kind from the remaining cards
3/47*2/46*1/45
(1:16215)
the probibility of both would be their product 1/20825*1/16215
1:337677375
1 in 337.7 million rounds of which two players are dealt, since you do not specify exactly the number of players in the game, all i can advise is that this is the probibility if only 2 peopel are playing the game, you would have to adjust the odds according to how many people were in the game proportionate to the two players the odds are for, it would become more likely by a signifigant degree as you add more players.
I beleive that it is far more likely that one of the officers was dealing and was very skilled at card mechanics, though you may beleive the cards were shuffled thoroughly, you likely wouldnt know if cards were added, or removed before or after it was shuffled by the skilled card mechanic. Also, the more time spent shuffling, the more oportunities, the card mechanic has to view cards and shuffle them to points he sees fit. Or even easier, who is to say that the skilled dealer didnt switch out the deck immediately after shuffling for one that appears identical.
Its my opinion that you were cheated.
Sounds like someone slipped in a cold deck after all that shuffling.
Why would all 10 players shuffle the deck?
In my Vietnam Daze, the smoke would have been so thick (even with officers) that you would not have been able to see the shuffles anyway.
And I probably would have forgotten the hand by the next day, lol.
i dont know what
The odds are pretty high against it (the four strong hands being dealt at one time), I would estimate roughly in the high 1,000,000 to 1 range (about 1,750,000 to 1). I have absolute empirical knowledge of a hand with higher odds being totally honest. I’ll tell you about that one in a minute.
That being said, rightly or wrongly (I spent no real time on the odds because of the following), the most important thing in guessing whether it was an honest hand/game or not depends mainly on your observations/knowledge at the time. Was there an inordinate amount of “jockeying for position”? The dealer/mechanic and the winner’s relative positions are critical, it is also critical, if there is a specific target. for that target to be seated properly. The most likely suspects of improper activity would be the dealer and the one holding the winning hand. The one holding the second best hand might, or might not, be a target of those two. Was he well known for having an excessive amount of money? The dealer would have exchanged the real deck for one already stacked and given it a “false shuffle” for credibility. These can both easily be done on the tabletop in full view of non-experts. A general feel of the overall activities, as in determining bluffs and tells, would also be invaluable for this diagnosis. The total number of players would also be critical for the stacked deck to come out right, although you could stack more than one ahead of time for different number of hands.
My story in support of it possibly being honest is as follows: I was dealing (hence the empirical knowledge) a game of five card draw once, playing a no-limit game with 5 or 6 friends (one was a tight friend - one not so much). I drew to a four card straight flush - 10 through king of hearts, I drew the 9 of hearts. There had been a lot of betting, although I don’t remember the total pot size - between two and three thousand - this was a long time ago (1968) and none of us really had a lot of money - this was a big pot for all of us. I don’t remember the other draws (1, or 2, or no cards, whatever), but after the draw three of us went pretty much all in. There was a full house and four of a kind losing to me (one my “tight” friend). I lost all those friends (the one hurt, as did most of the others) and received a bad check for $300 (from the not so tight “friend”, which did not “hurt”) on that hand.