Comments on: TRUE STORY! What are the odds in a 5-card stud poker game with 10 players that 2 would have 4 of a kind?

By: Seawolf SSN-21

Seawolf SSN-21 — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 01:34:29 +0000

The odds are pretty high against it (the four strong hands being dealt at one time), I would estimate roughly in the high 1,000,000 to 1 range (about 1,750,000 to 1). I have absolute empirical knowledge of a hand with higher odds being totally honest. I’ll tell you about that one in a minute.
That being said, rightly or wrongly (I spent no real time on the odds because of the following), the most important thing in guessing whether it was an honest hand/game or not depends mainly on your observations/knowledge at the time. Was there an inordinate amount of “jockeying for position”? The dealer/mechanic and the winner’s relative positions are critical, it is also critical, if there is a specific target. for that target to be seated properly. The most likely suspects of improper activity would be the dealer and the one holding the winning hand. The one holding the second best hand might, or might not, be a target of those two. Was he well known for having an excessive amount of money? The dealer would have exchanged the real deck for one already stacked and given it a “false shuffle” for credibility. These can both easily be done on the tabletop in full view of non-experts. A general feel of the overall activities, as in determining bluffs and tells, would also be invaluable for this diagnosis. The total number of players would also be critical for the stacked deck to come out right, although you could stack more than one ahead of time for different number of hands.
My story in support of it possibly being honest is as follows: I was dealing (hence the empirical knowledge) a game of five card draw once, playing a no-limit game with 5 or 6 friends (one was a tight friend - one not so much). I drew to a four card straight flush - 10 through king of hearts, I drew the 9 of hearts. There had been a lot of betting, although I don’t remember the total pot size - between two and three thousand - this was a long time ago (1968) and none of us really had a lot of money - this was a big pot for all of us. I don’t remember the other draws (1, or 2, or no cards, whatever), but after the draw three of us went pretty much all in. There was a full house and four of a kind losing to me (one my “tight” friend). I lost all those friends (the one hurt, as did most of the others) and received a bad check for $300 (from the not so tight “friend”, which did not “hurt”) on that hand.

By: browe50

browe50 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:00:34 +0000

i dont know what

By: TheDoverPro

TheDoverPro — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:48:04 +0000

Sounds like someone slipped in a cold deck after all that shuffling.

Why would all 10 players shuffle the deck?

In my Vietnam Daze, the smoke would have been so thick (even with officers) that you would not have been able to see the shuffles anyway.

And I probably would have forgotten the hand by the next day, lol.

By: sandynlily

sandynlily — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 13:58:09 +0000

3/51*2/50*1/49 is the odds of one player being dealt any 4 of a kind
(1:20825)

For a second player to be dealt any 4 of a kind from the remaining cards
3/47*2/46*1/45
(1:16215)

the probibility of both would be their product 1/20825*1/16215
1:337677375

1 in 337.7 million rounds of which two players are dealt, since you do not specify exactly the number of players in the game, all i can advise is that this is the probibility if only 2 peopel are playing the game, you would have to adjust the odds according to how many people were in the game proportionate to the two players the odds are for, it would become more likely by a signifigant degree as you add more players.

I beleive that it is far more likely that one of the officers was dealing and was very skilled at card mechanics, though you may beleive the cards were shuffled thoroughly, you likely wouldnt know if cards were added, or removed before or after it was shuffled by the skilled card mechanic. Also, the more time spent shuffling, the more oportunities, the card mechanic has to view cards and shuffle them to points he sees fit. Or even easier, who is to say that the skilled dealer didnt switch out the deck immediately after shuffling for one that appears identical.

Its my opinion that you were cheated.

By: Cjac

Cjac — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:33:59 +0000

tl;dr

The odds of one four of kind appearing in a round of poker are 4164 : 1